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Moody’s bemängelt Allianz Performance

24.02.2014 – allianz-logoThe German business of Allianz SE (Aa3 negative) has underperformed in the past five years compared with historical levels. Because of the weak performance of the property & casualty (P&C) business, its contribution to the group’s profits has been consistently lower than its contribution to the group’s revenues.

A high level of weather-related events affected the P&C segment’s 2013 results. Nonetheless, excluding exceptional claims, Moody’s expect Allianz to report an improved loss ratio for 2013. In the life segment, Moody’s expect only a slow decline in investment returns and margins, partly because of a recent increase in the duration of the asset portfolio. At the same time, Allianz’s leadership position as well as the regular premium nature of the German Life business will ensure progressive growth in the asset base. Therefore, overall, Moody’s expect operating profits to remain resilient in this segment, in the absence of any major investment shock. However, the German life business also represents one of the main areas of risk for the Allianz group, because of the high average guaranteed rate attached to German life liabilities. While Moody’s acknowledge that Allianz presents a significantly better risk profile than the average of the German market, the competition and the low interest rate environment creates incentives for Allianz to increase asset risk. Hence the quality of the assets backing German life liabilities has deteriorated since 2012. Risky investments could also create volatility in Allianz’s performance.

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