Marsh sieht schwarze Wolken am Himmel

27.11.2014 – marshMarsh befürchtet eine Eintrübung des Wirtschaftswachstums in Europa, im Nahen Osten und Afrika. Als Gründe nannte der Industrieversicherungsmakler das geringere Wirtschaftswachstum in China und den USA, die schlechteren Konjunkturprognosen in Europa und den fallenden Ölpreis.

Marsh states:

Despite a global fall in consumer demand, the general economy continues to grow across the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region. Both China and the US have slowed down, oil prices continue to fall, and even some former power-house countries of Europe, such as Germany, have reduced their growth forecasts for the coming years.

The Euro-zone is stagnating, with countries segregated into two distinct groups. There are clear indicators of small growth in some Northern European and Mediterranean countries, but this may simply be a return to a new normal. Some are doing better than expected, including Spain and Italy.

There are black clouds on the horizon: Recently, there have been several high-profile insolvencies, which have taken the marketplace and suppliers by surprise. There are also difficulties around cash flow and payment experience, both of which are deteriorating.

Insolvency levels have increased in some Eastern European countries and across Africa. Companies are still encountering significant challenges in the Middle East, where they continue to feel competitive pressure. So too are some industries, including telecoms and information technology (IT).

The largest rate rises are being witnessed in Africa, where 92 percent of clients have experienced rate increases. This reflects their increasing level of insolvencies and defaults. Premium rates in the Middle East remain tight, although in general the region remains relatively stable. (vwh/td)

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