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Fitch: Lebensversicherer müssen Einschläge fürchten

04.12.2014 – Eiopa_Andreas_PraefckeKleinere Versicherer müssen mit schlechteren Ratings rechnen. Lebensversicherer mit großer Anzahl hoher Garantien sollten sich bereits in acht bis elf Jahren auf schwere Einschläge einstellen bei anhaltender Deflation, analysiert Fitch die Ergebnisse des Eiopa-Stresstests für Versicherer – das von Fitch weitergespielte Szenario bringt hier negative Cash Flows.

Eiopas stress test suggested German insurers could face the biggest impact in this scenario, including a drop of more than 20 Percent in eligible own funds. This mirrors our own analysis, which found that insurers that have written high volumes of life policies with guaranteed returns would face long-term risks if interest rates fell below the level necessary to support the guarantees. These policies are popular in several countries including Germany and the Netherlands.

For a typical German life insurance portfolio backed by fixed index investments with an assumed reinvestment return of 1.5 Percent, which could be consistent with a Japanese-style scenario, we calculate that by 2027 investment returns would no longer be sufficient to meet the required return on investment. Eiopa stress test indicates that insurers in Germany, as well as Austria, Netherlands and Sweden could face negative net cash flows in eight to 11 years.

Bild: Westhafen-Tower, Sitz der Eiopa in Frankfurt am Main. (Quelle: Andreas Praefcke)

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