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Swiss Re prognostiziert Prämienwachstum für 2015

26.11.2014 – swiss-reDie Swiss Re erwartet für 2015 ein Prämienwachstum von voraussichtlich 2,8 Prozent – für die Lebensversicherer sogar von rund vier Prozent. Allerdings bleibe das Niedrigzinszumfeld eine besondere Herausforderung.

Swiss Re states:

The global economy is expected to strengthen modestly next year, according to Swiss Re’s latest publication, “Global insurance review 2014 and outlook 2015/16″. Non-life insurance premiums are expected to grow 2,8 percent in 2015, supported by strong economic activity in emerging markets. The life insurance sector will be notably stronger in both the advanced and emerging markets, and global in-force premiums are forecast to increase by 4,8 percent this year and by around four percent in 2015 and 2016. The low yield environment remains a profitability challenge, in particular for life insurers.

“Stronger economic activity will improve insurance premium growth, particularly in the emerging markets,” says Kurt Karl, Swiss Re Chief Economist. “But profitability will still be challenging because of the low investment yields.”

Overall emerging market non-life premium growth is forecast to return to around eight percent next year and more in 2016, with Emerging Asia in the lead. Advanced markets premium growth slowed to 1,7 percent this year and will remain near that pace into 2016.

For reinsurers, premium growth is expected to be lower than in the primary non-life sector mostly due to reduced reinsurance buying in China and softening property catastrophe reinsurance rates. Catastrophe reinsurance pricing will likely remain under pressure at the 2015 renewals. Thereafter the pace of decreases is expected to slow down.

Premium growth of in-force life premiums in the advanced economies is expected to be nearly four percent this year and about three percent in 2015, rebounding from a 1,5 percent decline in 2013. Emerging market life premiums are forecast to grow nine percent this year and 10% in 2015 after a sluggish 4,5 percent advance in 2013, driven again by a robust 13 percent premium growth in Emerging Asia. (vwh/td)

Link: Vollständiger Ausblick für 2015

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