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Below-normal Hurricane Season

07.08.2014 – tropensturmTropical Storm Risk (TSR), part of Aon Benfield Research, has issued its latest forecast for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. TSR’s Mark Saunders and Adam Lea are now forecasting twelve named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes between June and November.

The report specifies two primary factors as to why a below-normal hurricane season remains forecast. The first factor is that current forecast computer model projections are still indicating that trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and the tropical North Atlantic will be moderately stronger than normal in August and September. These trade winds influence the spinning up of storms, and the report states that the current projection is similar to forecast values in July. The second factor is that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean’s main development region have remained cooler than normal, and this is expected to continue through the peak cyclogenesis period in September. It is worth noting that temperatures are slightly warmer than what was seen in July. The forecast skills for these predictors at this lead time are 73 percent and 83 percent respectively.

Saunders and Lea currently project that there is a probability of 11 percent that the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season ACE Index will be above-average, a likelihood of 39 percent it will be near-normal, and a chance of 50 percent it will be below-normal. The tables below show the TSR forecast and the range of uncertainty that surrounds the forecast, including probabilities of landfall on the United States mainland. (vwh)

Aon Forecast 1
(Click to Enlarge) TSR forecast (Source: Aon Benfield)

Aon Forecast 2
(Click to Enlarge) The range of uncertainty that surrounds the forecast, including probabilities of landfall on the United States mainland (Source: Aon Benfield)

Link: Tropical Storm Risk

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