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Asset Manager mit negativem Ausblick auf Rückversicherer

23.10.2014 – Defensive oder Diversifikation und Wachstum – Analysten der Asset Manager von Alliance Bernstein sehen hier die Möglichkeiten für Rückversicherer, bei denen ansonsten spätestens 2015 der weiche Markt Niederschlag in den Ergebnissen finden wird. Aktuell sei der Ausblick auf den Sektor eher negativ. Weitere Strategien, den Aderlass zu beenden, hat man aber parat: längerfristige Verträge und die Ausweitung der Tätigkeit in den Erstversicherermarkt.

Online-Portal Artemis presents an overview to Alliance Bernsteins report:

The bloodletting in the reinsurance market demonstrates that it is industry capacity that drives the cycle, while the market’s clearing price is now set by the least conservative reinsurance player, according to equity analysts at Alliance Bernstein.

Pricing is down, terms and conditions are broadening and the baseline pricing appears to be being set by the reinsurance underwriter that is least conservative, perhaps willing to give away the most. Increasingly the reinsurance market is being priced to levels at which reinsurers cannot cover their cost of capital, say the analysts, so they expect a bifurcation of the market in terms of strategy.

Some reinsurers are set to play defense, which is a strategy of shrinking top lines, managing premiums, leveraging cheap reinsurance and retrocession, reducing their staff headcount and maybe even ultimately selling the company, according to Alliance Bernstein.

The other strategy is to look to grow your way out of the current market environment, by attempting to solve their problems through diversification, growth, hiring new teams, attacking new specialties, moving from short tail to long tail, shifting from writing reinsurance to primary and inevitably looking to consolidate by acquiring one of their more defensive, shrinking peers.

Alliance Bernstein analysts remain negative on the sector, saying to avoid reinsurance companies as a cohort while not offering any specific opportunities within the sector either. This is aligned with other equity analyst firms who in the main say that while results will likely continue to be acceptable, helped by low levels of losses, as we move into 2015 we may begin to see the length of the soft market beginning to bite. (vwh)

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