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“Turbulenzen sind in Zeiten depressiver Stimmung nicht ungewöhnlich”

10.02.2016 – “Turbulenzen sind in Zeiten depressiver Stimmung nicht ungewöhnlich”, glaubt Nick Peters, Portfoliomanager bei Fidelity International. Allerdings habe sich der Schwerpunkt der aktuellen Marktschwäche von China und den Schwellenländern auf die Banken in Europa und Japan verlagert, konstatiert der Experte in einem Marktkommentar für VWheute.

“While many might have assumed January’s late rally closed the book on market nerves, we have seen markets re-visiting the lows seen around 20th January over the past week. This is not unusual during periods of depressed sentiment – indeed, we saw it during the market volatility of August/September 2015. However, the focus of the latest market weakness has shifted from China, emerging markets and oil to banks in Europe and Japan, with investors shifting to “safe haven’ assets.

Regionally, our biggest overweight is to Japanese equities, and so the falls in the Topix (Tuesday’s was 5.5 percent in yen terms) are naturally a concern. As one of the few Asian markets open during the Chinese New Year, Japanese equities seem to have borne the brunt of the demand to take money off the table. Yet just as across developed markets as a whole, the macro backdrop remains supportive, with corporate earnings looking good and economic growth likely to improve from last year’s reading – albeit from a low base. And as shown by the Bank of Japan’s adoption of negative interest rates, monetary policy remains loose with policymakers on standby to deliver further easing.

Going forward, global growth continues to look positive, with potential for acceleration in the eurozone and Japan. US job figures had something for the bears and the bulls. Across developed markets the picture looks reasonably healthy, with even signs of stabilisation in China in recent weeks.”

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